Fundamentally, the value guys should be jumping into this stock about now. With a Forward P/E of less than 9 and a 3-5 year projected growth rate of 20+%, how can you not love this? This stock is even approaching the 6% dividend range.
The only thing that can stop OI is surging natural gas- even though they have pretty powerful pricing power.
Fortunately, there seems to also be run away from commodities these last couple days and the stock as help the $40 level during the sell off.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Commodity Stocks Crescendo Fall
This market is really pessimistic. The market was falling while oil was running up. We've had a pullback in oil for the last 2 days and in commodities overall for almost a week but we continue to make new lows.
China is don't and won't be until at least the Olympic games. After that, my thesis is, it all depends on increase in foreign investments.
I have been following these stock, like everyone else, looking for an entry.
I resisted calling a Buy on these stocks last Wednesday because the sell-off looked too strong (almost 20% on CLF) to signal a pullback.
Right now, these stocks are broken and they are being sold off with increasing intensity.
Just an update on what I've been looking at
APC: 81 to 64
SWN: 52 to 38
CHK: 74 to 59
DVN: 127 to 104
CLF: 122 to 86
X:196 to 147
AKS:73 to 48
MON: 145 to 112
MOS:163 to 118
POT: 241 to 197
China is don't and won't be until at least the Olympic games. After that, my thesis is, it all depends on increase in foreign investments.
I have been following these stock, like everyone else, looking for an entry.
I resisted calling a Buy on these stocks last Wednesday because the sell-off looked too strong (almost 20% on CLF) to signal a pullback.
Right now, these stocks are broken and they are being sold off with increasing intensity.
Just an update on what I've been looking at
APC: 81 to 64
SWN: 52 to 38
CHK: 74 to 59
DVN: 127 to 104
CLF: 122 to 86
X:
AKS:
MOS:
POT: 241 to 197
Monday, July 7, 2008
Frontline (FRO) Sinks to $59.75
I am continually doing more research on FRO and I keep on finding many positives.
For instance, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (along with spot rates) is up today.
Dry bulking shipping refers to the shipping of raw materials such as iron ore, coal, and grains. All hot commodities.
FRO also owns tankers to transport oil from from the Middle East.
To me, this company seems to be in the hot spot and has continuously (over years) operated brilliantly - rewarding its shareholders with large dividends. This consistent operating performance may result in an outlook upgrade from Standard and Poor's.
FRO seems to have sold off with the rest of the commodities but its income doesn't depend on the supply and demand of commodities but the S/D of shippers. Unfortunately, there seems to the a report increase in shippers but I will argue that record demand and stricter regulations (for oil tankers) require newer ships.
I am still bullish on FRO at this price.
For instance, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (along with spot rates) is up today.
Dry bulking shipping refers to the shipping of raw materials such as iron ore, coal, and grains. All hot commodities.
FRO also owns tankers to transport oil from from the Middle East.
To me, this company seems to be in the hot spot and has continuously (over years) operated brilliantly - rewarding its shareholders with large dividends. This consistent operating performance may result in an outlook upgrade from Standard and Poor's.
I don't see this changing anytime soon.S&P reviews Frontier Oil for possible upgrade
Monday June 30, 2:22 pm ETS&P places Frontier Oil on review for possible upgrade, citing low debt and stable performance NEW YORK (AP) -- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Monday placed the ratings of oil refiner Frontier Oil Corp. on review for possible upgrade, citing the oil refiner's low debt and consistent operating performance.
The ratings service placed Frontier Oil on CreditWatch with positive implications, meaning it has a one in two chance of being upgraded in the next three months.
S&P currently has a corporate credit rating of "BB-" for Frontier.
Frontier shares fell 77 cents to $70.47 in afternoon trading.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080630/frontier_oil_s_p.html?.v=1
FRO seems to have sold off with the rest of the commodities but its income doesn't depend on the supply and demand of commodities but the S/D of shippers. Unfortunately, there seems to the a report increase in shippers but I will argue that record demand and stricter regulations (for oil tankers) require newer ships.
I am still bullish on FRO at this price.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) is a BUY!
This infrastructure play, with its large exposure to petrochemicals and coal, still has much upside in this enviroment but being taken down with the broader market.
Current Price: 68.40
I think this stock can fall until $68.00 and then it becomes a must buy.
Filled the gap technically
Also look at FLR as another infrastructure play.
CLF must be looked at too. Taking a brutal beating today but insider have been buying on the way up.
Current Price: 68.40
I think this stock can fall until $68.00 and then it becomes a must buy.
Filled the gap technically
Also look at FLR as another infrastructure play.
CLF must be looked at too. Taking a brutal beating today but insider have been buying on the way up.
Frontline (FRO) to Beef Up Dividend Again!
Excerpt
As a result of the delivery of the third and the fourth heavy lift vessels to Dockwise, Frontline expects a net cash generation of approximately $28 million in the second and third quarter of 2008, which will enhance the dividend capacity, and expects to record a gain of approximately $105 million, including deferred gain related to the transaction, in the second quarter of 2008.
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080702/0412400.html
With this tough environment, the security of the dividend is heaven. There still is a chance of a flight from security, taking down the stock. But that is a mistake! With a current P/E of only 8, almost a 3rd of the S&P, this stock is CHEAP.
I called this pullback, the flight from quality, a couple of days ago when the stock was at $70.60.
Even with the possibility of this flight, I think the stock is a buy here @ $67.35
I will do some more research on why some of the numbers are LOWER for next year.
As a result of the delivery of the third and the fourth heavy lift vessels to Dockwise, Frontline expects a net cash generation of approximately $28 million in the second and third quarter of 2008, which will enhance the dividend capacity, and expects to record a gain of approximately $105 million, including deferred gain related to the transaction, in the second quarter of 2008.
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080702/0412400.html
With this tough environment, the security of the dividend is heaven. There still is a chance of a flight from security, taking down the stock. But that is a mistake! With a current P/E of only 8, almost a 3rd of the S&P, this stock is CHEAP.
I called this pullback, the flight from quality, a couple of days ago when the stock was at $70.60.
Even with the possibility of this flight, I think the stock is a buy here @ $67.35
I will do some more research on why some of the numbers are LOWER for next year.
First Solar (FSLR) a Short?
Taking the lesson we learned from Boeing (BA), when your customer is hurting, you're hurting.
With FSLR being the commericial application of solar panels, I think that to many manufactors/retailers are hurting right now to worry build but this sort of infrastructure.
Also, FSLR has failed to break $300 a couple times now and volume has been declining during the up-side rallies.
Current Price: 269.50
With FSLR being the commericial application of solar panels, I think that to many manufactors/retailers are hurting right now to worry build but this sort of infrastructure.
Also, FSLR has failed to break $300 a couple times now and volume has been declining during the up-side rallies.
Current Price: 269.50
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Nike (NKE) is a Buy!
With about 60% of sales coming from over seas and the Olympic games coming up, why would anyone foresee a slow-down for the marking genius?
Current Price: $58.66
$58 is key support
Current Price: $58.66
$58 is key support
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