Key Metrics:
We're looking for color on:
And, of course, any reassurances regarding the possible toxicity of their cadmium telluride (CdTe) cells, their supply of Tellurium (a rare element necessary for the production of their CdTe cells), and FSLR's insider stock sales.
http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/7/first-solar-fslr-q2-preview-market-expecting-a-blowoutThe last paragraph needs emphasis. From early April, insiders have sold 577,907 shares for an average price of $276.28 for a total of $17,410,277. More importantly, ever since April, FSLR has been in the wide range the stock currently is in. Market is saying telling us something.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/insider/trans.asp?view=All&Symbol=fslr| Manufacturer | Conversion Efficiency |
|---|---|
| SunPower(Polysilicon) | 23.4% |
| Suntech Power Holdings(Polysilicon) | 18% |
| Sharp (Polysilicon) | 13% |
| Kyocera (Polysilicon) | 18.5% |
| Solarfun (Polysilicon) | 17.2% |
| JA Solar Holdings (Monosilicon) | 17.7% |
| Trina Solar(Mono & Polysilicon) | 16.6% |
| Evergreen Solar (String Ribbon) | 15% |
| EMCORE (GaAs Concentrated Solar System) | 37% |
| Energy Conversion Devices (Amorphous Silicon Thin Film) | 8.5% |
| First Solar (CdTe Thin Film) | 10.5% |
| DayStar Technologies(CIGS Thin Film) | 14% |
| Ascent Solar (CIGS Flexible Thin Film) | 9.5% |
Current Price: $283.64
SPX Corp. reports a rise in secomd-quarter net income to $94.8 million, or $1.74 per diluted share. In the same period last year, the Charlotte-based company earned $63.9 million, or $1.12 per diluted share.
Revenue in the latest quarter nearly doubled to $546.5 million from $278.1 million a year ago. The increase was due primarily to the fourth-quarter acquisition of APV, which contributed $217.1 million to revenue for the quarter
SPX Corp is raising its 2008 earnings guidance to between $6.40 and $6.60 per share from its previous estimate of $6.20 to $6.40. The company earned $5.22 per diluted share in 2007.
http://charlotte.bizjournals.com/charlotte/stories/2008/07/28/daily25.html?ana=yfcpc
U.S. Steel's net income more than doubled to $668 million, or $5.65 per share, for the three months ended June 30, compared with $302 million, or $2.54 per share, during the same period last year.Current Prices for the Steel namesRevenue climbed 60 percent to $6.74 billion from $4.23 billion in the second quarter of 2007, the company said.
The results easily beat Wall Street estimates. Analysts, on average, predicted earnings of $3.91 per share, according to a survey by Thomson Financial.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080729/earns_united_states_steel.html?.v=3
CLF: $106.48 up 5.18%
AKS: $56.93 up 13.20%. UPDATE: Now $58.30
AGCO (AG) also crushes earnings.
Duluth, Ga.-based AGCO (NYSE: AG) recorded $2.4 billion in sales, a quarterly record for the company. The company earned $133.1 million in net income for the quarter ended June 30, or $1.34 a diluted share. During the same period last year, the company earned $63.8 million, or 67 cents a diluted share.
Richenhagen added the company’s “second quarter operating margins increased 1.4 percentage points to 7.9% compared to the second quarter of 2007.”
Current Price: 58.43, up 11.80%. Stock also hit a HOD of $61.67
Lets takes just some profits when it nears closer to $60 again and let the rest run. My margin expansion thesis is still intact so I continue to be bullish on AG.
Goldman downgrades Boeing (BA) from Neutral to SELL, target price $60. BA has been added to Goldman's Conviction Sell List.
Goldman downgrades Textron (TXT) from Buy to NEUTRAL.
Goldman downgrades Precision Cast (PCP) from Buy to NEUTRAL.
AmTech maintains NEUTRAL on Boeing (BA), target price cut to $67.
We also have an article in the Wall Street Journal stating
the landscape is shifting as oil prices rattle the underlying economics of the airline industry...The combined value of the orders for Airbus and Boeing planes exceeds $500 billion at list prices, so large-scale cancellations and deferrals could easily amount to tens of billions of dollars.
Officials at Boeing and Airbus, a unit of European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co., say orders for their jets are spread across a diverse group of carriers world-wide, insulating them from regional economic swings. But they acknowledge that they are in almost daily talks with airlines seeking to cancel or defer deliveries. Although most of these discussions involve U.S. carriers, signs of stress have emerged from India to Europe....
25% to 30% of the two makers' order books -- roughly equivalent to the number of planes that were intended to accommodate airline growth rather than replace aging planes -- could be subject to what he called the "flake-out factor" if oil prices continue their unprecedented rise.
To summarize, the analyst think that a weakening world environment and rising fuel prices will decrease demand for new planes and increase deferral and cancellations. The analysts are looking out to 2009, 2010, and 2011. I also want to add that the WSJ story is really misleading and has cherry-picked data.
In other words, they are making making an assumption on where the economy, aerospace demand, and oil prices will be 1-3 years old. I have a HUGE problem with this: they might as well be rolling dice with this many assumptions in their model. These guys are wrong half the time where economy and oil price will be 3 months from now but they are making predictions on where all all these moving part- world demand is dependent on the actions of 6+ billion people- will be in 3 years!
More importantly, there have been fears of order cancellations for at least 6 months now and all these fears have proved to be unfounded.
Lets get some news straight from the horses mouth. Here are some crucial statements from Boeing:
Despite the cost pressures in the second quarter, we achieved double-digit earnings per share growth in our first-half results.
Commercial airplanes continued to grow its backlog this quarter, with orders exceeding deliveries by a factor of 1.5. BCA's backlog now represents approximately eight times current annual revenues and remains diverse by region, product type and customer. In addition we continue to have unprecedented diversity in our commercial backlog, which now includes only 10% from U.S. airlines.
So far we have experienced a minimal impact on backlog, with only a handful of deferrals by U.S. carriers. We have had no cancellations to speak or, nor have the international carriers come to us to discuss deferral plan
[Although we expect some deferrals and cancellations,] Right now the demand for fuel-efficient new aircraft is still higher than what we can supply from our production plan.
What all this says to be is there is a possibility for some rough waters. However, even with some deferrals and cancellations will be offset by current world demand. Demand is outstripping supply by 1.5- that's really incredible. Also, we a backlog that is years of revenue. So by increasing production and recognizing revenue on delivery, I see little reason to fret until we see China, India, and the Middle East slowing significantly.
Analyst sees possibility for Home Depot market share improvement when once sector rebounds ATLANTA (AP) -- Shares of The Home Depot Inc. rose Tuesday after an analyst said the world's largest home improvement chain was poised to gain market share when the sector's sales begin to improve.Currently, the stock is up 6.81% to $25.57. I am a very big believer in Frank Blake.Citigroup Investment Research analyst Deborah Weinswig told investors in a research note Monday evening that the Atlanta-based company is off to a "solid start" on its efforts to roll out a series of regional distribution centers called "rapid deployment center"
"While the housing market remains challenging, we believe that (Home Depot) is well-positioned to gain market share when home improvement sales begin to improve," Weinswig wrote.
The rapid deployment centers are smaller than traditional distribution centers and are designed to allow Home Depot to improve its in-stock offerings, increase inventory turnover and lower the cost of getting merchandise on to store shelves.
Caterpillar's 2Q profit rises 34 percent as stronger sales outpace material, freight costs PITTSBURGH (AP) -- Caterpillar Inc.'s second-quarter profit jumped 34 percent as stronger international sales outpaced higher raw material and freight costs for the maker of backhoes and other heavy equipment.Because price increases outpaced material and freight costs, I see continued pricing power in those 2 sectors. Steel stocks seems strong and so do the rails like CSX.
The Peoria, Ill.-based company on Tuesday reported profit of $1.11 billion, or $1.74 per share, for the three months ended June 30, compared with $823 million, or $1.24 per share, a year earlier.The results easily beat Wall Street expectations.
Quarterly revenue rose 20 percent to $13.62 billion from $11.36 billion, with sales shifting outside North America. Caterpillar generated 60 percent of quarterly sales and revenues outside North America, up from 55 percent a year earlier.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, expected profit of $1.54 per share on revenue of $12.69 billion.
Boeing Co. said if the U.S. Secretary of Defense picks its 767-based tanker, instead of a rival Airbus A330-based model from Northrop Grumman Corp. and EADS, the U.S. Air Force could save more than $40 billion in fuel bills over 40 years.
In a study paid for by Boeing (NYSE: BA) and conducted by Conklin & de Decker Information, Boeing said, it was determined that the heavier A330-based tanker consumes 24 percent more fuel per trip than its 767-based tanker model.
Also important to note, BA might win back the controversial tanker deal it lost last year. This would be an astonishing turn of events.
Key Metrics (as per TechTicker)
Securities regulators from several U.S. states raided the St. Louis headquarters of Wachovia Securities, part of Wachovia Corp (NYSE:WB - News), on Thursday as part of a broad investigation into questionable practices involving auction rate securities, Missouri officials said.Owen-Corning (OC) up over 10% at the moment to 23.47. It was up about 17%, or 25.19, at one point. Previous close was $21.60. I have found no news yet. Possible accumulation by smart money- we had insider buying earlier in the month and in June.
Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan's office said the "special inspection" at the Wachovia division, the former A.G. Edwards, concerned the $330 billion auction rate securities meltdown. It said regulators were looking for information about Wachovia Securities sales practices, internal evaluations of the auction rate securities market, and marketing strategies.In addition to securities regulators from Missouri, regulators from Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and other states were part of the team entering Wachovia Securities' headquarters, the officials said.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080717/wachovia_probe.html?.v=2
Susquehanna Financial Group's John Shanley wrote in a note to investors on Tuesday that Beaverton, Ore.-based Nike's U.S. market share is growing despite a difficult economic environment.
He upgraded Nike to a "Positive" rating from "Neutral" with a $70 price target.He said the company has made "strong gains" in domestic market share over the past two years. Higher average selling prices are helping to offset overall slowing unit growth, and retail expansion should also help results, Shanley said.
Additionally, he said that any potential downside risk for the company over the next 12 months may already be priced into the stock, which has fallen 13 percent since the beginning of the year.
"We believe Nike's dominant U.S. market share position in the athletic footwear segment of the market, its well-diversified brand portfolio, and its growing presence in developing markets such as China and Russia should allow the company to better navigate through these difficult macroeconomic conditions than many of it competitors," Shanley wrote.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080715/nike_ahead_of_the_bell.html?.v=1
Bush expected to order reversal of offshore drilling ban12:42p ET July 14, 2008 (MarketWatch)SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Pres. Bush is expected to announce Monday an executive order lifting a ban on drilling in offshore U.S. waters, but the order is unlikely to play little more than a symbolic role in government efforts to reverse record-high oil and gasoline prices. "The President plans to rescind the executive order withdrawing offshore acreage from energy production," wrote analysts led by Kevin Book at Friedman Billings Ramsey Monday. "While this will put pressure on national lawmakers and local governments, it is not by itself sufficient to conquer a complex web of competing incentives," they said. The White House plans to make a statement on "outer continental shelf exploration" at 1:30 p.m. ET. A spokesperson could not be immediately reached for comment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080710/nyth143.html?.v=101Standard & Poor's Announces Changes to U.S. Indices
NEW YORK, July 10 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/- Standard & Poor's will make the following changes to the S&P 500, S&P 100 and S&P SmallCap 600 indices:
Thursday July 10, 5:47 pm ET-- MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA - News) will replace ACE Ltd. (NYSE: ACE - News) in the S&P 500, and MasterCard will replace General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM - News) in the S&P 100 after the close of trading on Thursday, July 17. ACE is in the process of changing its place of incorporation to Switzerland, thus rendering it ineligible for inclusion in the S&P U.S. indices. General Motors will continue to be a member of the S&P 500.
The Government Accountability Office last month detailed "significant errors" the Air Force made in the original award to Northrop and Airbus parent European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co. The GAO said Boeing might have won the contract had the service not made mistakes in evaluating the bids.
Sen. Richard Shelby, a Republican from Alabama, where the Northrop Grumman team would assemble its plane, said the Pentagon will conduct a limited rebid that looks only at seven issues where government auditors found problems in the initial process.
Shelby called it "the best of all options" that would address the "minor procedural flaws" the GAO cited.
The deal is the first of three contracts worth up to $100 billion to replace nearly 600 refueling tankers over the next 30 years.Boeing raises forecast for 20-year deliveries
10:58a ET July 9, 2008 (MarketWatch)
LONDON (MarketWatch) - Boeing Co. on Thursday raised its 20-year forecast for global commercial airline deliveries by 2.8% to 29,400, saying continued air travel growth and record-high fuel prices are boosting demand for new, more fuel efficient aircraft.
Boeing now expects 29,400 new jets worth $3.2 trillion to be delivered over the next two decades compared to 28,600 in its 2007 forecast.
The company said its forecast, which is updated every year, takes into account the short-term pressures on the industry from the deteriorating economic outlook, record-high oil prices and slowing traffic growth in some markets.
It assumes that the oil price will remain "high and volatile" in the near term before falling back to between $70 and $80 a barrel.
"We're facing a very dynamic situation today in the commercial aviation industry," said Boeing's head of marketing for commercial airplanes Randy Tinseth. "This forecast is rooted in today's realities, but also recognizes the nature of the long-term outlook."
Around 43% of the jets will be used to replace older aircraft, an increase from last year's forecast of 36%. The new aircraft will consist of 19,160 single aisles, 6,750 twin aisles, 2,510 regional jets and 980 larger aircraft of the Boeing 747 or Airbus A380 type.
Boeing expects the global fleet at the end of the 20-year period to consist of about 35,800 jets compared with a previous outlook of 36,400.
We like others have been communicating the rise of energy and raw material costs. Let me take a minute and review some of the specific price changes the industry is experiencing...
Next we'd like to point out the sheer magnitude of the increases. From the first half of last year to the first of this year, these costs have increased between 35% to over 80%. In addition, the U.S. dollar declined versus a market basket of the A dollar, the Real, the C dollar, and the Euro by approximately 15%.
End markets in China continue to be showing strength. We expect consumption in China to increase approximately 20% this year. We've lowered our projection slightly due to the earthquake relief effort but the projected increased activities in building and construction and to more application and transportation-related areas such as auto and bus platform.This speaks for itself.
I don't see this changing anytime soon.S&P reviews Frontier Oil for possible upgrade
Monday June 30, 2:22 pm ETS&P places Frontier Oil on review for possible upgrade, citing low debt and stable performance NEW YORK (AP) -- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Monday placed the ratings of oil refiner Frontier Oil Corp. on review for possible upgrade, citing the oil refiner's low debt and consistent operating performance.
The ratings service placed Frontier Oil on CreditWatch with positive implications, meaning it has a one in two chance of being upgraded in the next three months.
S&P currently has a corporate credit rating of "BB-" for Frontier.
Frontier shares fell 77 cents to $70.47 in afternoon trading.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080630/frontier_oil_s_p.html?.v=1
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