Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Not Bearish on Apple (AAPL) at 167.00

I am not an Apple fan but I cannot ignore the facts. AAPL selling 1 million iPhones opening weekend is quiet an accomplishment.

My bearishness on AAPL is/was 2 layered.

* I believed that increased competition would diminish demand for the iPhone. I looked to the RIMM Blackberry Bold, Sprint Samsung Instinct, and the HTC Diamond. They have or look like they will fall short. There is no iPhone killer yet. The new price (with the contract) is very appealing. I think that the many iPhone fans who refused to stand in line can help sell the 2nd million very quickly too.

*Potential for slowing Mac sales due to harsh economic conditions. Although, there is some talk (and action) on AAPL also becoming a corporate platform t(his has already happened at my work place - a software developer), I also believe another large crowd are college students. Maybe parents do not want to fork over an extra $1000 to buy a Mac vs. Dell. But, I do not want to speculate on how sales are going. I will continue checking some sources and report tomorrow.

The market is extremely bearish so AAPL can always go lower, but at the current price, the risk reward ratio is not favorable.

Let's take our very quick $13 gain (7+%) and wait for more facts.

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