I won't talk about Q3 numbers. They were great but they don't matter: it's the past.
The very first numbers that jumped out for me is Q4 EPS guidance of $1.00 on $7.8 billion.
This is, obviously, below Wall Street guidance and I don't care. AAPL consistently gives out "conservative" (AKA sandbags) earnings. What bothers me is they are projecting less EPS on higher revenue than Q3.
This has consistently been a company that puts its products on no or very small sales. This has been a high margin business and they are projecting such a sharp decrease?
Next FY margins are said to contract from 34% to 30%- expect multiple contraction.
On top of this, Steve Jobs was not on the conference call and they would not disclose his state of health. I'm not speculating on his health, vegans can be a crazy bunch, but this will probably spook some people and contribute to the downside of the stock.
Monday, July 21, 2008
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